Written by Tom Fiedler, Asheville Watchdog.
Buncombe County could be two-thirds of the way toward finishing its contribution to the 2024 elections if the turnout after Election Day remains as it was in 2020 when 78 percent of the state’s voters participated.
When the early-voting period closed at 5 p.m. Saturday, a record 53 percent of Buncombe County’s registered voters had cast ballots at 10 designated sites. The total of 115,727 participants exceeded the early-voting turnout in 2020 by more than 13,000, a jump of 13 percent. When absentee ballots returned by mail are included, the early-voting turnout percentage jumps to 58 percent.
If the final turnout remains close to where it was in 2020, Election Day voting may contribute less than a third of the total votes cast, the smallest proportion in the state’s history.
The North Carolina Board of Elections reported Sunday that more than 4.4 million ballots have been cast in the state’s 100 counties. That far exceeds the 3.6 million early votes in 2020 in which then-President Donald Trump won the state by only 74,483 votes – a 1.3 percent margin – while losing nationally to Joe Biden.
The record increase in early-voting came despite the impact of Tropical Storm Helene, which forced the county Elections Department to abandon four early-voting locations because of damage, and to limit daytime voting to between 9 a.m. and 5 p.m.
Even with these constraints, the Buncombe County turnout nearly matched the statewide average of 57 percent, also a record.
Corinne Duncan, the county’s director of elections, said she was “in awe” of the turnout.
“[E]ven amid storm recovery, as we grieve what we won’t get back and as we gather ourselves to make a plan for moving forward, voting remains a priority,” she said in a statement for Asheville Watchdog.
The narrow divide in the 2020 election has made North Carolina one of the handful of swing states that could determine control of the White House.
In the race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic Party nominee, the candidates appear to be in a dead heat, according to a consensus of national and state polls.
The early-voting turnout also points to a close outcome when party registrations are the measure.
Across North Carolina, Republicans have cast 33.6 percent of the ballots and Democrats 32.3 percent. Voters who aren’t affiliated with any party split the difference, casting 33.3 percent of the early votes.
Buncombe County remains a Democratic Party stronghold when measured by the early-vote turnout. Registered Democrats have cast 38 percent of those ballots while registered Republicans cast 26 percent. Again, unaffiliated voters could throw victory to either party as they comprised 36 percent of the early turnout.
Putting aside party ties, female voters in Buncombe County and across North Carolina have exercised outsized impact on the totals in two ways: total votes and their percentage of the electorate. Women cast 59,946 early ballots in Buncombe, more than 9,000 more than women did in 2020. They also outvote men by more than 10 percentage points nationally – the gender gap – comprising 52 percent of the electorate to 41 percent for men.
The statewide gender gap is mirrored in Buncombe County with the same 52 percent of the early votes cast by women and 41 percent by men.
Polls will open in Buncombe County Tuesday morning at 6:30 and close at 7:30 p.m. Because of storm damage to 17 of the county’s 80 precincts, new locations have been established and voters assigned to those precincts have been sent notices where that is possible.
Voters can check to see if their precinct is among those affected by calling 828-250-4200 on Monday and Tuesday, or go online here.
Asheville Watchdog is a nonprofit news team producing stories that matter to Asheville and Buncombe County. Tom Fiedler is a Pulitzer Prize-winning political reporter and dean emeritus from Boston University who lives in Asheville. Email him at [email protected]. The Watchdog’s reporting is made possible by donations from the community. To show your support for this vital public service go to avlwatchdog.org/support-our-publication/.