Written by John Boyle and Victoria A. Ifatusin, Asheville Watchdog.
While no one can predict the weather with 100 percent certainty, here’s a reliable forecast: As the climate warms, Asheville and western North Carolina will endure more frequent and intense rain events, and likely more flooding.
Much of the area isn’t ready for what’s in store for it.
By one estimate, the county will add more than 83,000 residents by 2045, meaning there will be more rooftops and other impervious surfaces, more runoff, and more rain water clogging or overrunning already taxed streams and stormwater drains.
That translates into more flooding for people in low-lying areas. Those include parts of Asheville and Buncombe County where the majority of residents are people of color and socially vulnerable, meaning they grapple with poverty, lack of transportation, and crowded housing, among other challenges.
Currently, more than 1,800 homes and 554 commercial buildings in Buncombe are at risk of experiencing a 100-year flood, resulting in potentially almost $75 million in damages, according to the Buncombe County Hazard Mitigation Plan.
That risk will only increase, experts say.
New development is generally built to modern state and local standards and should weather flood events smoothly, experts told Asheville Watchdog. But the area has a lot of older homes and commercial buildings that are vulnerable.
We’re already seeing flooding in unexpected areas, said county Planning Director Nathan Pennington, such as Smokey Park Highway near Candler, where remnants of Tropical Storm Fred caused widespread flooding in August 2021.
As of Sept. 13, Asheville Regional Airport had tallied 41.62 inches of rain, 5.83 above normal. Asheville has had at least three days of record-setting downpours, including 2.96 inches Aug. 3, 2.38 inches July 22, and 3.98 inches Jan. 9, according to the National Weather Service.
More rain is on its way this week. A major storm hit parts of the North Carolina coast Monday, dumping torrential rain and leading to numerous water rescues. Two to three inches of rain were expected Monday night in Asheville with a forecast for additional rain Tuesday, followed by lighter showers.
“The intensity (of rain events) is increasing the number of calls we get and the number of complaints, from across the city,” said Derek Wainscott, Stormwater Division manager for the city of Asheville. “A small, high-intensity rainfall can create the damage just like a flood can.”
Buncombe County, like most governments across the state, is using 2010 flood maps, Pennington said. Such maps don’t reflect the risk that residents face as more rain events occur thanks to climate change. The next mapping process “is slowly coming and making its way” across the state, he said.
The new maps will provide more specific information about potential floodways in “limited detail study areas,” locations previously not studied, Pennington said.
Justin Graney, spokesperson for the North Carolina Emergency Department, said the current maps depict 100-year-flood areas, which by definition are ones “subject to the one percent or greater chance of being flooded in any given year.”
North Asheville resident Mary Weber said she’s seen a change in water dynamics and flood patterns on her property just this year, and she welcomes more detail about potential flooding.
“We’d never seen the creek leave its banks until May,” Weber said, referring to Gordon Branch, a small creek adjacent to her property on Evelyn Place.
Neighbors have had their basements flooded, and like Weber, they’ve spent thousands of dollars on flood mitigation. Weber and her next-door neighbor split the cost of $8,000 of work on a shared driveway, adding a new concrete apron and replacing the concrete with porous gravel.
She and her husband moved into their house in 1996, “not aware that we were in the floodplain.”
“We found out when we went to refinance (in 1997),” Weber said. “The day before the closing, the lawyer’s office called and said they discovered that we were in the floodplain and needed to get flood insurance, regardless of whether we refinanced or not.”
Weber and her husband had flood insurance for about 20 years, canceling three years ago after they paid off the mortgage and fixed the driveway, as their flooding issues were mostly from the street and not the nearby creek. The insurance was going to go up 15 percent a year, Weber said.
In most years, flooding wasn’t a problem, even in September 2004 when back-to-back remnants of hurricanes Frances and Ivan caused extensive damage in the region, particularly in Biltmore Village. Those storms caused tens of millions of dollars in damage and killed 11.
While Weber knows she’s in a flood plain, she suspects a lot of city residents don’t know where they stand.
While the updated mapping will include data from the U.S. Geological Survey and recent analysis for flood studies, it does not include climate change scenarios.
The state anticipates the release of preliminary maps for Buncombe by the end of 2025.
The U.S. government also recently moved to implement the Federal Flood Risk Management Standard, which requires agencies to develop flood protection plans for federally funded buildings, projects, and homes above ground to make them resilient to climate change. New homes with government-backed mortgage insurance will have to meet the new two-foot elevation requirement above local flood levels.
BIPOC, socially vulnerable neighborhoods more exposed
In Shiloh, a traditionally African American community in south Asheville, Sophie Dixon and her husband bought their lot on Brooklyn Road in the late 1960s when no one was talking about flooding.
“It wasn’t even a thought at that time,” Dixon said. “My house is sitting right next to the creek, and that puts me in the flood zone. My insurance is through the roof because it’s in a flood zone.”
Her home is built on a crawl space, so flooding brings water and silt beneath the living area. Dixon has had to pump the space out several times.
She said the state did mitigation work on the waterway several years ago, and that’s helped.
“It has to really, really rain to cause it to flood now. In the past couple of years there’s only been one time when it’s gotten into the crawl space,” Dixon said.
Dixon’s son placed wooden blocks in front of the Little Branch stream that runs through Dixon’s property to prevent overflow into the crawl space. The Dixons also grew vegetation along the stream as a buffer.
But Dixon said she remains nervous.
“I can look out the window and see it (water) come all the way up,” she said. “I just hope and pray it doesn’t come out over the bank.”
Flood-prone neighborhoods like Shiloh, Southside, West End Clingman Avenue, South French Broad, and Oakley not only contain at least 44 percent residents of color, but are more socially vulnerable, according to data from the city of Asheville Climate Justice Initiative.
The CDC defines social vulnerability as exposure to poverty, lack of transportation, and crowded housing, among other factors.
A warming atmosphere holds more moisture
Weather experts and government planners say we can expect heavier storms and flooding in part because a warming atmosphere holds more moisture, causing more rain.
The 500-year flood plain, an area with a one-in-a-500 chance type of flood in any given year (.2 percent chance), is currently unregulated as far as building restrictions, Pennington said.
“However, what we’re advising people nowadays is, ‘Please get flood insurance if you’re in the 500-year [zone],” he said. “Please get flood insurance if you’re outside it.”
Wainscott said he was taught early in his career to never tell someone not to get flood insurance.
“If you ever hear me not recommend flood insurance, someone’s taken over my body,” Wainscott said.
Wainscott’s Stormwater Division’s program involves cleaning out drains, checking creeks for impediments that cause backups, and making infrastructure improvements, particularly in flood-prone areas. For the 2025 fiscal year, the Stormwater Division’s budget totals $8.8 million.
Mary Roderick, the economic and community department’s planning director for Land of Sky Regional Council, has been conducting a flooding study in partnership with UNC Asheville’s National Environmental Modeling and Analysis Center.
The most recent phase provides a “Regional Resilience Assessment,” offering a sobering look at the region’s vulnerability to extreme weather.
“We’re seeing not only more frequent storms, but also more intense storms,” Roderick said. “Our stormwater infrastructure is not designed for those types of storms. It was designed for 10, 20-year storms.”
The Land of Sky draft report found that 6,879 residential and commercial parcels in Buncombe, Haywood, Henderson, Transylvania, and Madison counties face risk in “medium or high vulnerability” areas.
The report finds the Biltmore Village to Tunnel Road corridor along the Swannanoa River and downtown Waynesville “account for about 26 percent of the region’s total vulnerability and risk for commercial property.”
Roderick said in most cases, designing infrastructure for the most intense storms is impractical because of expense and space.
“It’s really up to every property owner to keep some of that water on the site,” she said, pointing to rain barrels, water gardens, and cisterns as possible smaller solutions for residents.
Buncombe and Madison counties share a Hazard Mitigation Plan, which provides extensive information about high-risk natural hazards.
According to the plan, 24 hurricane remnants have hit within 75 miles of the two counties since 1896. From 2000 to 2020, 44 floods occurred in Buncombe, causing more than $85 million in property damage.
In north Asheville, Weber and her neighbors are trying to keep Gordon Branch out of their basements. Weber said she tries to keep her runoff on her lot as much as possible, but faces a challenge with Gordon Branch, which has a half-dozen tributaries feeding it.
“It looks like the mighty Mississippi when it runs,” next-door neighbor Allie Dawson said.
When Dawson bought her house in 1991, the creek was so covered in kudzu she didn’t even know it was there. About three years ago, after the creek left its banks, Dawson put in riprap and added onto a six-foot high rock wall that’s supposed to keep the creek in its bank.
Still, the water topped the wall during last May’s downpour, leaving brush and sticks by her backyard fence. Dawson, who’s retired, said the creek is worse than it’s ever been and no one seems able to help.
“I’d like to know if there’s anything I can do personally to stop it,” Dawson said. “I mean, I’ve tried to maintain the bank where it keeps it back, whether it’s for me or for them. I feel bad for the people that have been flooded.”
‘What’s happening? Has something changed in the upstream?’
Those people include Anne Tennant and Joe Swift, who live on Coleman Avenue behind Dawson and Weber. The couple bought their home nine years ago.
In May the basement flooded — the first time they had water in their house. The deluge infiltrated underneath a small, low wall on the edge of the property.
The damage to their finished basement was extensive. They tore out drywall 18 inches from the bottom and hired a remediation company to remove the mud.
The couple said they knew they were moving into a floodplain but were desperately looking for a house. When they first moved in, they were getting some water infiltration from rainfall, so they paid for exterior work to the house to prevent it.
That lasted until the low wall in the backyard failed this spring. Swift said they paid to install a new wall and a concrete base that goes eight inches into the ground. That, and the remediation work, cost $13,000.
They don’t have flood insurance because the cost — $2,400 a year — is more than they’d have to pay over time for occasional flood damage. Weber also didn’t get flood insurance for similar reasons.
In all, four homes in the neighborhood flooded in May.
‘We’re seeing more moisture in the air’
While western North Carolina’s mountains tend to break up severe storm systems, we’re still vulnerable to slow-moving remnants. And our vulnerability is growing, said David Easterling, director of the National Climate Assessment Technical Support Unit, part of NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information in Asheville.
Global temperatures have gone up about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit since 1901.
“As it warms up, we’re seeing more moisture in the air,” Easterling said. “We already see that in the observations. There’s more moisture in the air than 60 years ago, and that’s just going to continue.”
The surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico, where most tropical storms or their remnants arrive from, ”have gone up considerably,” Easterling said.
“And that’s the reason we’re really concerned about hurricanes coming through the area, because that’s where hurricanes pick up all their energy, from the evaporation of the ocean.”
As those temperatures rise, development in the area is increasing and will create huge water runoff issues.
“Infrastructure that has worked well for the last 50 years, with climate change and more intense bursts of rain … is going to get overwhelmed more frequently, and we’ll see more urban flooding,” said Renee Fortner, watershed resources manager with RiverLink, an Asheville-based environmental advocacy nonprofit.
RiverLink recently launched its “Reduce Rain Runoff” campaign, which in part states, “The sheer volume and velocity of rain runoff is the biggest threat today to the health of the French Broad (River) Watershed. Untreated rainwater flows off hard surfaces (such as parking lots and roofs) and carries sediment, pollutants and bacteria with it, negatively impacting water quality.”
The French Broad River watershed comprises eight counties, including Buncombe, and 4,000 miles of rivers and streams.
On the west side of RiverLink’s building in the River Arts District, there is a reminder of the power of flooding — a white hash mark that sits about 10 feet above ground. It indicates the water level during the catastrophic 1916 flood.
The Buncombe County Comprehensive Plan notes that the French Broad River Metropolitan Planning Organization estimates the county will add 83,435 residents by 2045, an increase of 31 percent, which will create more runoff and risk of flooding.
‘We are the United States of Amnesia when it comes to flooding’
The September 2004 flood spanned 10 days, as hurricanes Frances and Ivan’s remnants brought 6-12 inches of rain.
But the 1916 flood was astronomically worse. The French Broad water flow hit about 110,000 cubic feet per second, compared to just more than 40,000 in 2004.
A city of Asheville news release on the 100th anniversary of the flood noted that dams breached and 80 people died.
“The French Broad River, usually about 380 feet wide, stretched 1,300 feet across,” the release stated. “It crested at 21 feet, some 17 feet above flood stage.”
In 2004, the river crested at 11.57 feet.
Jeff Wilcox, a hydrogeologist and professor of environmental science at UNC Asheville, points out that if you check historical flows of the French Broad River, the 2004 flood is the second highest in history and pretty close to the third-highest, which occurred in the late 1920s.
“But they were nowhere close to 1916,” he said.
The difference, Wilcox said, was most of the area in 1916 had been deforested, making runoff nearly impossible to stop. Trees have grown back in many areas, but development has also surged, creating more impervious surfaces and more runoff.
Flood footprints — the areas likely to be affected — are getting bigger.
Former Asheville City Councilman Marc Hunt, a river advocate and volunteer consultant on Woodfin’s kayaking wave project in the French Broad, said talk of a 1916-type flood is rare. The wave, currently under construction, can handle flooding, he said, but he believes residents should be informed about the potential for damage.
For example, on a recent tour of Biltmore Village, which flooded badly in 2004, Hunt took Watchdog reporters to the village’s most prominent landmark, All Souls Cathedral. Church docent Myra Goodwin said the 1916 flood came all the way to the church’s exterior steps, although the building was spared.
Hunt recommends carefully reviewing the county’s Geographic Information Systems mapping, which offers detailed flooding overlays.
Hunt said the main concern is all of the floodplain structures that were grandfathered in before more modern building codes. People may view 2004 as a “worst-case scenario,” Hunt said, but it really wasn’t.
“Curiously, there seems to be some strong tendency in human nature to ignore risks like this,” Hunt said.
Pennington, the Buncombe planner, calls it “flooding amnesia.”
“You’ve got to remember, when it comes to flood events, amnesia sets in like that,” Pennington said, snapping his fingers. “We are the United States of Amnesia when it comes to flooding.”
Russ Towers, the founding co-owner of Second Gear bike and outdoor gear shop, has been here long enough to remember 2004.
Second Gear has been in its River Arts District spot since September 2021. In 2004, when the building was an appliance business’ storehouse, it had about a foot of water in it, ruining its merchandise.
Second Gear is in the middle of the 100-year flood plain, the French Broad visible about 75 yards away. Towers said the store pays $3,100 a year in flood insurance.
In August 2021, Hurricane Fred’s remnants left about five inches of water and mud against the building, Towers said.
He pointed to large storm drains in the store’s parking lot.
“With that storm drain there, there was nowhere for the water to go,” he said. “It left a bunch of silt and mud in the parking lot we had to get cleaned out.”
That cost about $1,800, but Towers felt they got off easy. A massive storm like 2004’s — or something worse — lurks in his mind.
“That’s the only thing that concerns me — short-term or long-term,” Towers said.
Asheville Watchdog is a nonprofit news team producing stories that matter to Asheville and Buncombe County. John Boyle has been covering Asheville and surrounding communities since the 20th century. You can reach him at (828) 337-0941, or via email at [email protected]. Victoria A. Ifatusin joined us through a 12-month fellowship as part of the prestigious Scripps Howard Fund’s Roy W. Howard Fellowship program. You can reach her via email at [email protected]. The Watchdog’s reporting is made possible by donations from the community. To show your support for this vital public service please visit avlwatchdog.org/support-our-publication/.